Seismologist Dr. Ramazan Demirtaş, stated that the Büyük Menderes Depression and Kuşadası Fault have the potential to produce earthquakes of up to 6.0 magnitude, and noted “but”. Here are the details…
EARTHQUAKE SCIENTIST DEMİRTAŞ: “THE GREAT MENDERES DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE AN EARTHQUAKE OF MAGNITUDE 6.0”
Geologist Dr. Ramazan Demirtaş stated on his social media account that the Büyük Menderes Depression has the potential to produce earthquakes of up to magnitude 6.0. However, he emphasized that the precise earthquake predictions made by some scientists are not supported by scientific data and create unnecessary anxiety in the public.
EARTHQUAKE HISTORY OF THE GREAT MENDERES DEPRESSION
Dr. Demirtaş evaluated the tectonic movements in the region and shared the following information:
The Büyük Menderes Depression is 180 km long and its annual slip rate is calculated as 2 mm.
The last major earthquakes occurred in 1653, 1899 and 1955.
It is estimated that at least 1000 years are required for a fault slip of 2 meters.
It was stated that the risk between Germencik and Nazilli was very low.
It was noted that the Kuyucak – Buharkent – Sarayköy line could carry a seismic gap.
WHAT DID HE SAY ABOUT KUSADASI AND DAVUTLAR FAULT?
Considering the lengths of the Kuşadası and Davutlar faults, they have the potential to produce earthquakes of up to M=6.0 magnitude.
However, he stated that a major earthquake is not expected in the near future due to the low annual slip rates of the faults.
He noted that the Izmir Earthquake on October 30, 2020, had placed stress on the region, but said it was unlikely to trigger a new earthquake.
“THEY SCARE PEOPLE WITH FICTIONS”
Demirtaş stated that some experts were making earthquake predictions on television screens and social media without scientific data and made the following warnings:
“Faults do not produce earthquakes upon expectation,” he said, reminding that earthquakes will not occur unless the recurrence interval is reached, and sufficient stress accumulation occurs.
He stated that those who say “We are expecting an earthquake” do not have paleo seismological and mathematical parameters.
He stated that scientists must comply with ethical rules, otherwise public trust in scientists is damaged.
“THERE IS DISINFORMATION IN THE PRESS AND SOCIAL MEDIA”
Dr. Demirtaş emphasized that sharing earthquake predictions without a scientific filter negatively affects the mental health of citizens and creates an unnecessary panic environment.
Dr. Ramazan Demirtaş, who has expertise in paleo seismology, earthquake geology, and active tectonics, shared the following on social media on the X platform:
- Büyük Menderes Depression
-Length=180km between Denizli and Söke
-Annual slip rate: 2mm/year
-Latest #earthquakes: 1653, 1899, 1955
-2-meter slip: at least 1000 years
-Between Kuyucak-Buharkent-Sarayköy: Seismic gap?
-The risk between Germencik and Nazilli is very low.
- – Kuşadası part = 17km
– Dilek Peninsula (Davutlar Fault) part = 20km
– There is no known #earthquake information on these two parts.
– Considering their length, they have the potential to produce earthquakes with a maximum magnitude of M = 6.0.
- However, since the annual slip rates of Kuşadası and Davutlar faults are very low, there is no definite rule that they will produce an earthquake in the near future, as stress was loaded in the October 30, 2020 earthquake.
- -As I mentioned above, the #earthquake hazard parameters of both faults are important.
Faults do not produce earthquakes as expected. If the recurrence interval has not been filled, they do not produce earthquakes immediately due to stress loading on the faults. Just like the September 26, 2019 Silivri offshore earthquake did not trigger the expected potential Marmara earthquake.
- Those who make statements like “We are expecting an #earthquake on the Kuşadası and Davutlar fault” do not have any mathematical parameters or findings from a paleo seismological perspective. They are just making up stories on screen.
They are working with the logic of “I will say it and if it works, I will become famous.”
- See their explanations: There is no information about
Kuşadası and Davutlar faults regarding
-slip speed
-date of the last #earthquake they produced -earthquake recurrence intervals.
- Between Germencik and Aydın 1653+1000 years = 2653
– Between Aydın and Nazilli 1899+1000 years = 2899
– Therefore, it can be said that the #earthquake risk is very low on these two parts.
There may be a seismic gap between Kuyucak-Buharkent-Sarayköy.
- -However, since there is no information about the latest #earthquake date and the recurrence intervals are more than 1000 years, it is not possible to conclude that an earthquake may occur very soon.
- 9. Unfortunately, fictions that are discussed in scientific environments and not subjected to a scientific filter, when made directly in the press and on screens, do not go beyond explanations and cause information pollution that only makes our people uneasy and harms their mental health.
- These statements, which are incompatible with earthquake science, made on the screens by those who should be adhering to scientific ethical rules in the most meticulous way, deeply shake the trust in seismologists, and this situation leads to an explosion in the number of local and foreign healers on social media.
Source: https://yenisokegazetesi.com/